If there were rankings for tournaments, would Hamburg crack the Top 25? On one hand, the former clay-court Masters was downgraded to a 500-level event in 2009, and its status has largely been reflected in its champions. In 2007, Roger Federer ended Rafael Nadal's 81-match winning streak on dirt to claim the title; three years later, the Rothenbaum Tennis Center was the site of unseeded Andrey Golubev's first ATP final triumph.
But despite this and Hamburg's calendar position shift to after the French Open, the event still attracts a strong field. There is an insatiable appetite for clay-court tennis on tour, and the German Open is the most prestigious clay tournament remaining this season. This year's 48-player draw is deceivingly stout; the top eight seeds are all in the Top 25?others include Alexandr Dolgopolov, Nikolay Davydenko and Marin Cilic?and the final direct entrant was Maximo Gonzalez, ranked No. 76 at the time of acceptance.
It's a tough call. So is handicapping this year's field, since most of the competitors haven't played on the soft stuff since May. But that isn't the case with Nicolas Almagro, the third seed, who's made a career out of winning mid-level, clay-court tournaments (He's 10-3 in ATP finals, all on clay). He lost to countryman David Ferrer in the Bastad semis last week, but Almagro should earn another final-four berth by pushing through a weak quarter that includes defending champion Golubev and not much else. I like the Spaniard over Jurgen Melzer (No. 2 seed), Fernando Verdasco (No. 8 seed) or possibly Juan Carlos Ferrero (unseeded, but last week's Stuttgart champion) in the semis.
Who could meet Almagro at the end? The top seed is Gael Monfils, but he may encounter trouble with fellow Frenchman Gilles Simon, who dwells in his quarter. To me, that possible quarterfinal is a de facto semifinal, though in reality either Mikhail Youzhny or Juan Ignacio Chela, now ranked inside the Top 25, should see through to Saturday. Anyways, whether its Monfils or Simon, I give Almagro the inside track to the Hamburg title, which would arguably be the finest of all his trophies. Beauty, as always, is in the eye of the beholder.
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How about Atlanta; where does this two-year-old tournament reside in the rankings? Steadily rising, I'd say, though admittedly its place as the first U.S. Open tune-up probably makes it seem more important than it really is. Nevertheless, this 250-level event returns most of its talent from last year, excluding Andy Roddick but including Mardy Fish and John Isner. Fish, the top seed and defending champion, is in the midst of a steady stream of heavy ranking-point defenses; his improved results around this time last year started his ascension into the Top 10. Isner, the University of Georgia alum who lost last year's final, will surely be donning the red and black again on his title quest.
Other Americans?of which there are many in this draw?also have something to prove. Robby Ginepri is returning from injury; James Blake is trying to stay in the Top 100 (Blake, now No. 91, beat Ernests Gulbis last night, 5-7, 7-6 (5), 6-2). Some have already failed, like Alex Bogomolov Jr., who reached the third round at Wimbledon but lost in the first round here as the No. 7 seed, and Atlanta resident Donald Young, who fell to fellow American Michael Russell. But the Yank with the most at stake might be Ryan Harrison, who is still looking for that breakout moment. A tournament like this, with a good-but-not-great field and a supportive crowd, seems like just the place for it.
But I could also say that about two other prominent youngsters in the draw, Richard Berankis and Grigor Dimitrov. Berankis, who you probably remember from the Australian Open, would be quite the story; if he wins his first-rounder against Nicolas Mahut, Fish awaits. I'm more optimistic about Dimitrov, who's seeded fifth. Lleyton Hewitt is a likely second-round opponent, with Xavier Malisse or Harrison in the quarters, but the 20-year-old has the talent to top them all.
So, will experience or excitement prevail? In the long run, the former should win out?a player like Fish will seek to peak at the U.S. Open. But before the bigger tournaments begin in August and the top tier descends upon North America, a smaller event like Atlanta affords more uncertain outcomes. Sure, Fish and Isner are this week's blue chips, Hewitt is probably due for a deep run and Harrison will have the fans. But I'll go with Dimitrov, before his bandwagon gets too crowded.
Ed McGrogan is the online editor of TENNIS.com.
Source: http://feeds.tennis.com/~r/tenniscom-features/~3/qB_SK1KmH1o/
